a system dynamics approach for analyzing the human resource changes in sedan tire industry of iran

the human resource managers have to make strategic andprospective decisions to respond to the unexpected changes in nationaltire industry. in this regard, system dynamics is one of the most practicaltools for searching causal structures in systems, simulating theirbehaviors against unpredicted variations, and making some reactivepolicies for possible future conditions. we try to predict and sensitivelyanalyze the required human resource capacity of national sedan tireindustry over the horizon of iran 1404 vision through developing asystem dynamics model. the structures of sedan tire industry aredesigned based on sterman’s methodology and the recent 10 yearscorresponding data on the effective variables is identified. collected datadescribed by mathematical equations is then considered as the model’sinput in vensim. based on the designed model, the behavior and finalresults of variables are evaluated until the end of time horizon. numericalresults indicated that the number of human resources employed in sedantire industry at the end of iran 1404 vision will approximately be equal to15000. by establishing a sensitivity analysis, the effect of the keyvariables, particularly the demand, on sedan tire industry is examined andsuggestions for making macro-planning policies for production andhuman resource in different conditions are provided.